BCRA reserves fell below $48 billion for the first time in two months, dragged down by the collapse of gold

The gross international reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA) fell again on Monday, September 28, marking their eighth consecutive decline, primarily driven by the collapse of gold. On that day, the stock decreased by $269 million and closed at $47.976 billion, despite the monetary authority resuming purchases in the official market.

The movement was mainly conditioned by the valuation of the Central Bank's holdings. In particular, gold fell by 3.80%, its worst drop in six months, which would have reduced the accounting value of the reserves by about $300 million. Therefore, the purchase of foreign currency in the official market was not enough to offset the impact of external prices on the gross stock.

On that day, the BCRA acquired $11 million and brought the accumulated buyer balance in September to $243 million. Meanwhile, purchases for 2026 reached $14.338 billion. However, the intervention remained limited compared to the volume traded, as the entity explained only 2% of the $681 million negotiated in the foreign exchange market.

Thus, the daily average of purchases in September stood at $12 million, well below the $38 million in August, the $103 million in July, the $68 million in June, and the $137 million in May. Therefore, the Central Bank resumed accumulating foreign currency after not intervening on Friday, but the monthly dynamics continue to show weak accumulation compared to the stronger months of the program.

Lower absorption and more demand for foreign currency

The slowdown in official purchases did not begin in September, although the month deepened that trend. August had already been the weakest month for reserve accumulation in 2026, and the exchange balance published on Friday by the BCRA allowed for the identification of several factors behind that behavior.

The first was the lower trade surplus. The goods balance decreased by $901 million compared to July, due to lower export liquidations and higher import payments. Additionally, banks also contributed less supply, as they sold $225 million in August, down from $783 million in July and $946 million in June.

This situation was compounded by a demand for savings that declined less than expected. The formation of external assets was around $1.8 billion in August, just below the $1.9 billion in July, despite the fact that the Christmas bonus effect was no longer in play. In September, moreover, the market estimates that the financial account could have contributed less supply, although the debt placements of the month could still generate additional income for the official market.

The wholesale market fell after hitting highs at the start

In the foreign exchange market, the wholesale dollar began the week with a slight decline and closed at $1,524.50 for sale, one peso below Friday. The session had good volume and a mixed trajectory, as the demand for coverage pushed the exchange rate up initially, but then greater supply of foreign currency appeared and the quotation corrected from the highs.

Prices reached $1,531 shortly after operations began, $5.50 above the previous close. However, by mid-morning, supply began to gain weight and the wholesale rate moved away from those levels until it recorded a low of $1,524 in the last hour. The close showed a partial recovery, but it was not enough to prevent the daily decline.

In cash, $679.5 million were traded and in futures, $1.768 billion were negotiated. The market reading indicated that the official strategy of intervening in futures and in alternative financial dollars helped to prevent a new rise in the spot rate, in a week marked by the last days of September and by more active demand for foreign currency.

Financials, futures, and rates

Among the alternative dollars, the MEP rose 0.20% to $1,555.31, while the cash with settlement advanced 2% to $1,631.13. Additionally, the blue dollar increased by 0.32% and closed at $1,565. With these values, the gap between the blue and the wholesale rate stood at 2.66%, while the exchange rate rose to 4.87%.

In futures, the curve closed with an average decline of 0.09%. September fell by 0.29%, October dropped by 0.22%, November decreased by 0.16%, and December ceded 0.12%, although some segments of 2027 ended with moderate increases. The implied rate for September stood at 1.50% monthly, equivalent to 17.96% annualized, while October was at 1.68% monthly, or 20.20% annualized.

In the money market, the TAMAR fell from 23.75% to 23.63%, while the BADLAR dropped from 23% to 21.94%. Thus, the day left a combination of declining reserves due to valuation, limited official purchases, a drop in the wholesale rate, and a fall in rates that once again highlighted the balance between demand for pesos, exchange coverage, and reserve accumulation.

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