Bitcoin at $150,000 by 2027: Bernstein's Optimism Returns

40 years of declining interest rates may be coming to an end. For Bernstein analysts, this shift in monetary policy could provide strong support for Bitcoin. Their central scenario targets a new record of $150,000 by mid-2027, followed by a cycle peak near $300,000 in 2029. In the most bullish case, BTC could even reach $500,000. Caution is still advised regarding Strategy: Bernstein maintains its positive recommendation but lowers its price target due to shareholder dilution.

Key Points

• Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin at $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and around $300,000 at the cycle peak in 2029.
• In the event of an acceleration of the debasement trade, the bank mentions $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029, with a target of $1 million by the end of 2033.
• 59% of the BTC supply has not moved in the past twelve months, and the correction since October 2025 has been limited to 50%, compared to 75% to 90% in previous cycles.
• The price target for Strategy has been reduced from $450 to $350 due to accelerated dilution, despite holding 840,447 BTC in cash.

Debt favors scarce assets and could propel Bitcoin higher

Bernstein's thesis is based on the explosion of U.S. public debt, now estimated at $40 trillion. Persistently high bond yields would increase interest burdens, worsen deficits, and force the government to borrow more.

In the face of this spiral, policymakers might prefer a gradual devaluation of the currency rather than a harsh budget adjustment. This debasement trade encourages investors to seek scarce assets, whose supply cannot be easily increased, such as gold and Bitcoin.

This change is already starting to appear in the ETF market. IBIT, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, and GLD, SPDR's gold fund, have regained the ranking of the ten most traded U.S. ETFs. They are notably replacing some semiconductor-focused products that dominated trading during the summer.

According to Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg, the bet on currency depreciation would thus begin to take over from the excitement around artificial intelligence.

Several factors also reinforce the status of BTC as a scarce asset. About 59% of its supply has not moved in the past twelve months. Furthermore, its correction of about 50% since the peak in October 2025 remains lower than the drops of 75% to 90% recorded in previous cycles.

Bernstein attributes this better resilience to spot ETFs, institutional purchases, and corporate treasuries.

In its central scenario, Bernstein maintains the historical model of four-year cycles. Bitcoin would rise to around $125,000 by the end of 2026, establish a new record at $150,000 by mid-2027, and then peak near $300,000 in 2029.

A faster influx of institutional capital could, however, alter this trajectory. BTC could then reach $200,000 as early as mid-2027 and $500,000 at the peak of the next cycle. The long-term target remains set at around $1 million by the end of 2033.

This revision also affects the forecasts regarding Strategy. Bernstein's teams maintain their Outperform recommendation but lower its price target from $450 to $350 due to faster capital dilution. This new target still represents a potential increase of 176% compared to the closing price of $126.83 observed on Tuesday.

Michael Saylor's company currently holds 840,447 BTC, or nearly 4% of the maximum Bitcoin supply. Its balance sheet would also ensure about 3.9 years of coverage for its interest and preferred dividends. A rise in its STRC stock towards $100 could finally allow Strategy to more vigorously resume its BTC purchases.

Bernstein thus anticipates a new bullish phase, driven less by the Bitcoin cycle alone than by a profound change in the global monetary regime. It remains to be seen whether the debasement trade will actually allow BTC to reach $500,000 by 2029.

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