Bitwise: Bitcoin Implied Volatility Drops to Three-Year Low

By: x.com|10/23/2026 11:53:01

On October 23, Bitwise released a report stating that Bitcoin is currently holding resiliently around $82,000, close to the spot ETF holding cost. Key levels include the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $74,800 and the real market average of about $77,600. The former can serve as a reference for short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the invested capital in the market is either in profit or loss. The price range formed by these two levels may become the dividing line between bulls and bears. The trading range for Bitcoin over the past 30 days and 60 days has narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively, with the implied volatility at-the-money for each term approaching the bottom of the distribution range over the past three years. The 3-month and 6-month implied volatilities are at the 0.8 and 0.2 percentiles of historical distribution, indicating that the market's pricing of future volatility has dropped to extremely low levels. The net inflow into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $1.074 billion this week, rising in tandem with the cumulative spot trading volume, providing support for Bitcoin prices and offsetting some macro pressures. However, the market has realized profit increases, particularly among long-term holders, with the net position change indicator being negative, suggesting they may be in a distribution phase, which could be one reason for the ongoing consolidation of Bitcoin prices.

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At the October 22 close, the Nasdaq fell about 2.6%, its steepest daily decline since June. Investors reassessed the potential returns on heavy AI investment, while spending commitments from companies such as Meta added to credit concerns. Risk aversion pushed long-bond yields lower, while Brent and WTI reached roughly five-month highs, with WTI nearing $100 a barrel. Bitcoin hovered around $81,000–$82,000, while gold and silver also weakened. Today’s pre-market focus is AXP and SLB earnings.