Blockchain Revenue Expected to Decrease by 28% in 2026, Predictive Markets and RWA to Grow - Survey

Key Points of This Article

• In Q3, revenue from the real economy surpassed infrastructure revenue for the first time
• Public companies' share increased to 16%, more than double from 7% in 2022

Institutional and Real Economy Revenue to Account for 30%

Blockchain-related revenue in 2026 is projected to decrease by 28% year-on-year to approximately $99 billion. This estimate comes from the annual report "1kx Blockchain Revenue Report 2026" published by cryptocurrency investment firm 1kx on the 29th. While the overall market is shrinking, revenue derived from institutional investors and real economy usage is expected to account for 30% of the total.

The decrease aligns closely with the approximately 30% drop in cryptocurrency prices, including the average price of Bitcoin (BTC), and remains stable in terms of its ratio to the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. Revenue in 2025 was about $138 billion, approaching the all-time high of approximately $145 billion in 2021.

According to the company, "blockchain revenue" includes fees paid by users for DEX and exchange transaction fees, as well as mining rewards and earnings from the reserve management of stablecoin issuers. This data is annualized based on on-chain data from 2,621 protocols and financial results from 104 public companies. By sector, DeFi and finance account for approximately $65 billion, making up 66%.

Predictive Markets and RWA to Grow

Revenue from the real economy is expected to reach approximately $8 billion in the first half of the year, a 58% increase compared to the same period last year. Of the $2.9 billion increase, predictive markets accounted for $1.4 billion, while RWA (Real World Assets) tokenization and related transactions and lending accounted for $1.1 billion. In Q3, revenue from the real economy (approximately $5.3 billion) surpassed that from blockchain infrastructure (approximately $5.1 billion) for the first time.

Fees from predictive markets are estimated to have exceeded $1.5 billion in Q3, about 19 times that of the same period last year. This revenue is concentrated in two companies, Kalshi and Polymarket, with most transactions related to sports. The trading volume of perpetual futures targeting RWA expanded to 18% of the total perpetual futures in Q3, with 55% being tokenized stocks. The amount spent using cryptocurrency payment cards also tripled year-on-year to $3.38 billion in the same period.

Revenue from blockchain infrastructure is expected to be approximately $22 billion, marking the lowest level since 2020. While the number of transactions in the first half of the year increased by 18%, transaction fees halved from $2.4 billion to $1.2 billion. The proportion of transaction fees in total revenue is below 3%. Revenue related to institutional investors was approximately $6.1 billion in the first half of the year, down 10% year-on-year due to a decrease in management and custody fees associated with asset price declines.

Public Companies' Share Increased to 16%

By revenue contributor, the share of public companies expanded from 7% in 2022 to 16% in 2026. The upcoming IPO of Circle in 2025 is a contributing factor, with public companies generating approximately $8 billion in revenue in the first half of the year, including $2.6 billion from Coinbase (including Deribit) and $1.4 billion from Circle (some of Coinbase's figures overlap with revenue from Circle, totaling approximately $3.3 billion for both companies). The top six companies account for about 60% of the total revenue of public companies.

The report also notes the positive evaluation of value returns to token holders. The index composed of tokens that provide returns increased by 82% by the end of September 2026, outperforming the 5% decline in BTC. This index is based on hypothetical figures from backtesting and does not reflect actual performance. In Q3, the number of protocols that returned value to holders reached 283, the highest ever. 1kx disclosed that it may hold stakes in the projects covered in the report.

1kx cites regulatory tailwinds, an increase in tokenized assets, and market shifts as reasons to believe that blockchain revenue will trend upward in the next few quarters. The company positions this trend as an aspect of the "fusion of traditional finance and cryptocurrency."

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.