Study Estimates 29,588 Quantum Bits Can Crack Bitcoin Keys in 61.8 Minutes

A study by quantum computing company Alice & Bob estimates that a fault-tolerant quantum computer with approximately 29,588 physical quantum bits could crack the 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography problem used in Bitcoin in about 61.8 minutes. This problem underpins the digital signatures used for authorizing Bitcoin transactions. The research results are theoretical resource estimates and do not imply that existing quantum computers have the capability to crack these keys. The study also estimates that 22,593 physical quantum bits could crack RSA-2048 encryption in about 3.14 days. The calculations employed cat qubits technology aimed at reducing quantum errors, combined with more efficient error-correcting codes and improvements to Shor's algorithm. If a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive private keys from publicly available public keys, the corresponding Bitcoins could face risks of unauthorized signatures and asset theft. The estimated cracking time is still longer than Bitcoin's average block interval of about 10 minutes; approximately 6.9 million Bitcoins may be at risk due to their corresponding public keys being publicly available.

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