Analysts Highlight Three Key Signals for Bitcoin's Next Move

According to experts, three factors will influence Bitcoin's further movement.
The market is awaiting the release of the PCE, Nvidia's report, and the speech of the Fed Chair at Jackson Hole.
Higher-than-expected inflation data could increase pressure on the crypto market, while a strong Nvidia report could support investors' appetite for riskier assets.

Bitcoin, after a recent sharp rise, is facing three significant macroeconomic events that could determine the asset's further movement by the end of this week, CoinDesk reports. These include the July PCE inflation report in the U.S., Nvidia's financial results, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Against this backdrop, analysts continue to assess the prospects of a new bullish cycle for Bitcoin.

PCE Could Shift Expectations for Fed Rate

The first important factor will be the publication of the July PCE — a key inflation indicator that the U.S. Fed focuses on.

According to FactSet's consensus forecast, the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, could be 3.2% year-on-year and 0.18% month-on-month. In June, these figures were 3.3% and 0.13%, respectively.

Higher-than-expected data could heighten concerns about a potential Fed rate hike and create additional pressure on Bitcoin and the crypto market. After a seven-day rise above $80,000, the first cryptocurrency has already retreated below $79,000, and technical indicators suggest an overbought condition.

According to CME FedWatch, at the time of writing, the market estimates a 40% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September.

Probability assessment of Fed rate movement. Source: CME FedWatch.

"The focus is now on the July PCE inflation figure and the GDP data for Q2, followed by Jackson Hole," said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian crypto exchange Giottus.

He noted that the market currently estimates about a 60% probability that the Fed will maintain the rate at 3.50-3.75% in September.

Subburaj also urged investors not to chase the recent Bitcoin rise but instead to use a gradual entry into positions, small volumes, and controlled leverage.

Nvidia's Results May Affect Risk Appetite

The second important factor will be Nvidia's financial results for Q2. The company, which is a key indicator of demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, will release its report after the market closes on Wednesday.

Strong results could alleviate concerns about large capital expenditures on AI funded by debt and support investors' appetite for riskier assets.

This could also matter for Bitcoin. According to TradingView, the 90-day correlation between the first cryptocurrency and Nvidia's stocks has mostly remained positive and exceeds 0.5 since the beginning of 2025.

At the same time, the crypto market has already received a strong boost after Bitcoin rose from around $63,000 to $79,000 during the week of August 17-23. This marked the largest weekly gain of the asset in dollar terms in history.

According to Strive CEO Matt Cole, the next cycle could be the strongest in Bitcoin's history. He also noted that the asset has demonstrated a breakthrough not only against the dollar but also against gold.

Jackson Hole May Determine Fed's Future Policy

The third catalyst will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28.

Investors will closely monitor his stance following the recent plan by the U.S. Treasury Secretary to increase the buyback of long-term bonds. The Treasury is trying to curb the rise in government bond yields, while Warsh has previously advocated for the market to determine their value.

A possible signal regarding the Fed's future policy could determine whether the momentum that helped Bitcoin rise above $80,000 will be sustained.

Analysts' assessments also support the continuation of the bullish trend. At Wintermute, after breaking through a six-week trading range, they changed their Bitcoin forecast to bullish. Meanwhile, to confirm the new market regime, according to CryptoQuant, the asset needs to hold above the 365-day moving average — around $83,000.

Additional optimism comes from Bernstein's forecast. Analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and around $300,000 at the peak of the next cycle in 2029.

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