US Economy Under Trump: Why 53% Feel Worse

When Donald Trump won the 2024 election, the central argument was simple: the economy would get back on track. A year and a half later, most Americans disagree. According to a survey by the Financial Times conducted by Focaldata, 53% of registered voters say their financial situation has worsened since January 2025.

This number is significant not only as a political thermometer but also as an indicator of consumer confidence. In the United States, economic perception and consumption go hand in hand. When the majority of the population feels worse off, spending behavior changes, and the repercussions are felt in markets around the world.

Inflation That Won't Budge and Erosion Among the Base

The Achilles' heel of the government continues to be the cost of living. In July 2026, American inflation stood at 3.4%, higher than the rate recorded at the end of Biden's administration. Not surprisingly, 64% of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of rising prices. Within this group, about one-third identify as Republican.

Gas prices help explain part of the problem. The war in Iran has pressured fuel prices and consumer goods, eroding the purchasing power of American families more broadly than aggregate indicators suggest. For the average voter, what matters is the price at the pump and in the supermarket, not the Federal Reserve's target.

The erosion among independents is even more pronounced. Among voters without party affiliation, 57% say they are in a worse financial situation. More than two-thirds believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. For those following the global macroeconomic landscape, this data matters: independents are the decisive group in the midterm elections in November.

Republicans Lose Confidence in Their Main Electoral Asset

Historically, the Republican Party was seen as more competent on economic issues. Inflation, employment, and fiscal management were among the party's strongest electoral assets. The Financial Times survey shows that this perception has reversed: Democrats now lead in voter confidence in all these areas.

Within the Republican base itself, approximately one-quarter of voters acknowledge a deterioration in their financial condition. Trump's approval rating among his supporters has dropped eight percentage points compared to the previous survey. Nearly 20% of registered Republicans disapprove of the president's performance.

These numbers are not just political curiosities. The weakening of the Republican economic narrative could directly affect Congress's decisions on fiscal policy and regulation in the coming months. A more divided legislature tends to produce fewer tax cuts and more budgetary impasses.

What This Means for Investors and Markets

The perception of economic deterioration in the United States does not stay contained within its borders. When 55% of American voters disapprove of the government and consumer confidence falls, the effects spread.

First, there is the direct impact on consumption. The United States accounts for about 25% of global GDP. A contraction in American household spending affects supply chains, commodity exporters, and emerging markets. Brazil, as a supplier of raw materials, feels this directly.

Second, the persistence of inflation at 3.4% complicates the Federal Reserve's work. The market expected interest rate cuts to be more aggressive in 2026, but the resilience of prices keeps the Fed in a cautious position. Higher interest rates for longer in the US mean a stronger dollar, which pressures emerging currencies and risk assets worldwide.

Third, there is the political factor. The November 2026 legislative elections serve as a referendum on Trump's management. If Republicans lose significant ground in Congress, the government's economic agenda will be stalled. This includes everything from promised tax cuts to financial deregulation that would benefit banks and fintechs.

The White House Responds, but the Data Weighs Heavily

In response to the survey, the government stated that it has taken measures to reduce costs, lower drug prices, recover jobs, and cut taxes. Spokesperson Kush Desai declared that "the Trump administration continues to fulfill the president's cost accessibility agenda."

The official narrative, however, runs into arithmetic. Inflation remains above the inherited level, the conflict in Iran adds uncertainty to the energy landscape, and voter perception consistently deteriorates. Nearly two-thirds of respondents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Only one in four sees the course as correct.

For Brazilian investors, the message is pragmatic: the American political environment is more unstable than stock indices suggest. The US economy may be growing in terms of GDP, but the distribution of that growth is clearly not reaching most families. And when perception diverges from aggregate indicators for too long, it is perception that tends to prevail at the polls and, eventually, in the markets.

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