September Fed Meeting on 15-16, Interest Rate Hike Outlook Divided

The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September will take place on September 15-16, Eastern Time. In Korea, the policy statement will be released at 3 AM on the 17th, followed by a press conference at 3:30 AM. The Fed has stated that the September meeting is a regular meeting accompanied by the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). On the day of the meeting, the decision on the benchmark interest rate will be made, along with the members' assessments of growth, inflation, and the interest rate path. In August, non-farm employment increased by 162,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Average hourly wages in the private non-farm sector rose by 0.3% from the previous month and by 3.1% year-on-year. This has led to interpretations that the Fed's easing measures will be difficult. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on September 10, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11. The FOMC determines monetary policy, and the target range for the benchmark interest rate and the wording of the statement can affect the prices of risk assets. The market shows a 55% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September meeting and a 43% probability of no change. However, there are reports that the probability of a hike has increased to 60.3% following the employment announcement. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are sensitive to the interest rate path, and if inflation slows despite strong employment, interest rate expectations may be adjusted. The September meeting is an important schedule not only for the interest rate decision but also for confirming the Fed's economic outlook through the SEP.

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